Advocacy Monthly - Summer 2024

Senate Elections

While it often seems that the media is focused on the horserace of this presidential campaign, it’s important to remember that one-third of the Senate and the entire House are also up for election this year. The majority of the Senate races up for election this year are Democratic-held seats. (23 Senators that caucus with the Democrats compared to the Republicans’ 11 seats). The leaves relatively little capacity for Democrats to expand their majority, but does provide an opportunity for Republicans to take the majority. There are some key races that are pivotal to deciding the majority.

Arizona: Senator Kyrsten Sinema (Ind.) initially sought re-election as an independent, but ultimately decided to exit the race. Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Phoenix area Representative, is the Democratic Party nominee, while Former television anchor Kari Lake is once again seeking statewide office. Analysts generally rate this race a Toss-Up or Lean Democratic. Recent polling averages suggest that Gallego has a lead in the single digits. Arizona’s abortion ballot measure could impact turnout. Joe Biden won the state in 2020, and Republicans have failed to win many statewide offices in recent election cycles, though Democratic wins here often have the most narrow of margins, with Maricopa County making up the bulk of ballots.

Florida: Senator Rick Scott (R) is seeking re-election and is facing a challenge from former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), who represented the Miami suburbs. The race is generally rated as Lean or Likely Republican, with a Scott lead in the single or double digits. Florida’s marijuana legalization and abortion ballot measures could affect turnout. In recent years, Florida has trended more Republican, especially after a continuing spike in new residents since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Maryland: Sen. Ben Cardin (D) is retiring. Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks won the Democratic nomination and is facing popular Frm. Governor Larry Hogan (R). Analysts generally rate this Lean or Likely Democratic, and polls range from suggesting a statistical tie to an Alsobrooks lead of around 10%. While a solidly blue state, Governor Hogan was very personally popular here.

Michigan: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring, and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D), who represents the Lansing area, is facing off against Frm. Rep. Mike Rogers (R) in this campaign. Polling suggests that Slotkin is leading in the race, with the lead ranging from about 5 to 10%, with analysts rating the race as Lean Democratic or Toss-Up. The outcome of the race may ultimately match the outcome of the presidential race in this critical swing state.

Montana: Senator Jon Tester (D) is facing a strong re-election challenge from Tim Sheehy (R), a businessman and rancher, in this red state. Polling suggests the race is tied or slightly leans in favor of Sheehy, and the race may be the most challenging to predict of all Senate campaigns in the cycle. Analysts generally rate this race as a Toss-Up, but an abortion ballot measure could impact turnout.

Nevada: Senator Jacky Rosen (D) is facing a re-election challenge from Sam Brown (R), a businessman and former military officer. The race is generally rated as leaning slightly in favor of Senator Rosen, and polls suggest she leads by anywhere from 5 to 15%. The state has generally favored Democrats in recent years, though President Biden was trailing in some polls here prior to exiting the presidential race.

Ohio: Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is facing a re-election challenge from Republican businessman Bernie Moreno (R). Polling generally suggests a Brown lead of 4 to 8%, but election analysts rate the race as a Toss-Up, likely because of expectations about Republican turnout in a state that formerly was more of a purple state, but that has trended increasingly Republican in the Trump era.

Pennsylvania: Senator Bob Casey (D) is facing a challenge from former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Pennsylvania is seen as central to both presidential campaigns’ re-election strategies, and is the most crucial state in the Democratic Party’s so-called “Blue Wall” of Upper Midwestern and industrial Rust Belt swing states. The race is rated as Lean Democratic, and Senator Casey leads in polls, by 4 to 14%.

Texas: Senator Ted Cruz (R) is facing a re-election challenge from Rep. Colin Allred (D), who represents a district in the Dallas suburbs. Polling shows that Senator Cruz leads by 2 to 11%, with election analysts rating the campaign as Lean to Likely Republican. Both campaigns have sizeable warchests of cash on hand, and Democrats have long believed that demographics in the state will one day make it more competitive for their party.

Wisconsin: Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) is being challenged by Eric Hovde (R), a bank executive. Despite the Hovde campaign’s sizeable fundraising efforts, Sen. Baldwin retains a lead of 6 to 9%. Presidential elections in the state are notoriously close and the Senator’s re-election could hinge on turnout at the top of the ticket. Election analysts generally rate the campaign as Lean Democratic.

West Virginia: Senator Joe Manchin (Ind.) is retiring and this state is almost certain to be won by Republican Governor Jim Justice, but it’s worth mentioning because Manchin was a former Democrat who is still caucusing with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. A Justice win here would make this a certain Republican pick-up in a tightly divided Democratic-controlled Senate.

All things considered, and with the current New Jersey vacancy treated as a likely Democratic appointment, Democrats, and their aligned Independent Senators, come into this campaign with a 51-49 majority. If they win the White House, Democrats can only afford to lose the West Virginia seat and still retain their majority. Unless they can manage to hold onto their seats in OH, MT, WI, MI, PA, etc, they have a very narrow path to keeping their majority. A Democratic Party pick up in Florida or Texas is possible, but would be unexpected.