Advocacy Quarterly - Fall 2024

Election Outcomes

Election Night has come and gone, but control of the House of Representatives looks much the same as it did in the 118th Congress. Speaker Mike Johnson will welcome a very narrow Republican majority to Washington in January; one that is increasingly attenuated by President-elect Trump’s selection of House Republicans for his Cabinet. At the time of writing, Republicans have 219 seats, to the Democratic Party’s 213 seats, with 3 remaining uncalled by the Associated Press. Incumbents currently lead in 2 of the 3 that are still uncalled.

When all the votes are counted, Speaker Johnson will likely have a Republican Caucus of 220 to 222 seats, not counting resignations for Administration posts. Republicans flipped 3 seats in North Carolina, after the Legislature redrew the district lines; and Democrats flipped 3 seats in New York after re-districting there as well. Democrats also gained 1 seat each in Alabama and Louisiana, respectively, after court battles to make those congressional maps more in line with the racial demographics of their populations. Additionally, Republicans flipped 2 seats in Pennsylvania, 1 in Michigan, and 1 in Colorado. Democrats flipped a Republican seat in Oregon, and one in California, so far.

In the Senate, while fewer overall changes are being made, there will be much more impactful changes as a result of the transition in party control. Republicans swept their way into a majority and will enter the next Congress holding 53 seats, opposing the Democratic caucus with 47. Democrats will be holding 45 seats with an additional 2 Democrat aligned Independents. While not a comfortable majority, it will almost certainly be enough to ensure that Republican priorities can get the support they need to pass through what was previously a razor thin Democrat majority. 4 total seats in Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania flipped from Democrat to Republican control, while Democrats picked up the Arizona seat from the retiring Independent Senator Sinema.

In addition to this change in control, Senate Republicans also held their own internal elections for Majority Leader. The long-serving Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell stepped down from his role and passe the torch to South Dakotan Senator and Former Whip John Thune. Thune won 29 votes in a secret ballot and will now take the leading role in Senate politics.